Union St. Gilloise vs Genk prediction
Jupiler Pro League · · Stade Joseph Marien, Brussels
Live · 45'
Updated:
Our statistical model, built on the odds of the sharpest bookmakers with their margin removed and adjusted for absences, form and news, gives Union St. Gilloise a 63% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Genk 15%. The most likely result is 1-1. Expected goals: Union St. Gilloise 2.12, Genk 0.98.
Match result
Goals
Most likely scores
Match analysis
Standings and form
Union St. Gilloise: position 3 with 26 points from 10 matches (won-drawn-lost 8-2-0), 29 goals scored and 7 conceded. Recent form: W W D W W.
Genk: position 7 with 15 points from 10 matches (won-drawn-lost 4-3-3), 18 goals scored and 14 conceded. Recent form: L W W L D.
On average Union St. Gilloise take 2.60 points per game, Genk 1.50.
Absences and team news
Union St. Gilloise report no significant absences.
Genk report no significant absences.
Team news, Union St. Gilloise: Union played away at Celta Vigo in the Europa League on Thursday and face this match with only three days of recovery.
What the odds and the model say
Bookmaker odds, with their margin removed, start from 62% for Union St. Gilloise, 22% for the draw and 16% for Genk. Absences, standings and news change little: the model stays at 63%, 22% and 15%.
Expected goals: Union St. Gilloise 2.12, Genk 0.98, 3.09 in total. Over 2.5 at 60%, both teams to score at 56%; the most likely score is 1-1. The expected total is high: the model expects an open game.
Expected corners: 9.3 (over 9.5 at 44%). Expected yellow cards: 3.9, with referee B. Van Driessche (over 3.5 at 54%).
Kick-off forecast in Brussels: 9 °C, no rain, wind 7 km/h, pitch dry.
In short
For the model the most likely outcome is a Union St. Gilloise win (63%, fair odds 1.60); double chance 1X rises to 85%. These are statistical estimates, not certainties: one match in three or four goes against the favourite.
Missing
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