Cagliari vs Frosinone prediction
Serie A · · Unipol Domus, Cagliari
Full time
Updated:
Our statistical model, built on the odds of the sharpest bookmakers with their margin removed and adjusted for absences, form and news, gives Cagliari a 28% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Frosinone 47%. The most likely result is 1-1. Expected goals: Cagliari 1.37, Frosinone 1.81.
Match result
Goals
Most likely scores
Match analysis
Standings and form
Cagliari: position 9 with 16 points from 11 matches (won-drawn-lost 5-1-5), 10 goals scored and 15 conceded. Recent form: W L L L L.
Frosinone: position 6 with 20 points from 11 matches (won-drawn-lost 6-2-3), 24 goals scored and 15 conceded. Recent form: L W W D W.
On average Cagliari take 1.30 points per game, Frosinone 2.00.
Absences and team news
Cagliari are without A. Obert, H. Winks, J. Fazzini, Riyad Idrissi.
Frosinone are without A. Raimondo, P. Masini.
Team news, Cagliari: Cagliari loses Fadera and Nzola, who were decisive in the lead against Lazio; Aurelio is training separately due to calf discomfort.
Team news, Frosinone: Frosinone loses its top scorer Raimondo to injury; Birligea should play in his place.
What the odds and the model say
Bookmaker odds, with their margin removed, start from 29% for Cagliari, 25% for the draw and 45% for Frosinone. Accounting for absences, standings and news, the model moves them to 28%, 25% and 47%. The model's adjustments never move an outcome by more than 5 points.
Expected goals: Cagliari 1.37, Frosinone 1.81, 3.18 in total. Over 2.5 at 62%, both teams to score at 63%; the most likely score is 1-1. The expected total is high: the model expects an open game.
Kick-off forecast in Cagliari: 20.6 °C, no rain, wind 10 km/h, pitch dry.
In short
For the model the most likely outcome is a Frosinone win (47%, fair odds 2.14); double chance X2 rises to 72%. These are statistical estimates, not certainties: one match in three or four goes against the favourite.
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