Parma vs Bologna prediction
Serie A · · Ennio Tardini, Parma
Full time
Updated:
Our statistical model, built on the odds of the sharpest bookmakers with their margin removed and adjusted for absences, form and news, gives Parma a 16% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Bologna 58%. The most likely result is 0-1. Expected goals: Parma 0.79, Bologna 1.69.
Match result
Goals
Most likely scores
Match analysis
Standings and form
Parma: position 16 with 8 points from 11 matches (won-drawn-lost 2-2-7), 9 goals scored and 17 conceded. Recent form: L W D L L.
Bologna: position 8 with 17 points from 11 matches (won-drawn-lost 5-2-4), 16 goals scored and 14 conceded. Recent form: W W W W L.
On average Parma take 0.80 points per game, Bologna 1.40.
Absences and team news
Parma are without E. Touré, E. Corvi, S. Britschgi, D. Drobnic.
Bologna are without T. Heggem, R. Piccoli.
What the odds and the model say
Bookmaker odds, with their margin removed, start from 17% for Parma, 27% for the draw and 56% for Bologna. Accounting for absences, standings and news, the model moves them to 16%, 26% and 58%. The model's adjustments never move an outcome by more than 5 points.
Expected goals: Parma 0.79, Bologna 1.69, 2.48 in total. Over 2.5 at 45%, both teams to score at 46%; the most likely score is 0-1.
Kick-off forecast in Parma: 9.4 °C, no rain, wind 2 km/h, pitch dry.
In short
For the model the most likely outcome is a Bologna win (58%, fair odds 1.74); double chance X2 rises to 84%. These are statistical estimates, not certainties: one match in three or four goes against the favourite.
Missing
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