AS Roma vs Sassuolo prediction
Serie A · · Stadio Olimpico, Rome
Full time
Updated:
Our statistical model, built on the odds of the sharpest bookmakers with their margin removed and adjusted for absences, form and news, gives AS Roma a 76% chance of winning, the draw 16% and Sassuolo 8%. The most likely result is 2-0. Expected goals: AS Roma 2.68, Sassuolo 0.81.
Match result
Goals
Most likely scores
Match analysis
Standings and form
AS Roma: position 2 with 27 points from 11 matches (won-drawn-lost 8-3-0), 31 goals scored and 10 conceded. Recent form: W W W D W.
Sassuolo: position 17 with 8 points from 11 matches (won-drawn-lost 2-2-7), 16 goals scored and 29 conceded. Recent form: L L L L L.
On average AS Roma take 2.40 points per game, Sassuolo 0.80.
Absences and team news
AS Roma report no significant absences.
Sassuolo are without Fali Candé, D. Boloca, E. Pieragnolo, I. Koné.
Team news, AS Roma: Out Svilar, Gollini, Mancini and Dybala: many starters are missing at the Olimpico, with Vasquez in goal.
Team news, Sassuolo: Captain Berardi is out with a physical problem announced the day before: his offensive contribution will be missing.
What the odds and the model say
Bookmaker odds, with their margin removed, start from 75% for AS Roma, 15% for the draw and 10% for Sassuolo. Accounting for absences, standings and news, the model moves them to 76%, 16% and 8%. The model's adjustments never move an outcome by more than 5 points.
Expected goals: AS Roma 2.68, Sassuolo 0.81, 3.50 in total. Over 2.5 at 68%, both teams to score at 53%; the most likely score is 2-0. The expected total is high: the model expects an open game.
Kick-off forecast in Roma: 1.7 °C, no rain, wind 2 km/h, pitch dry.
In short
For the model the most likely outcome is a AS Roma win (76%, fair odds 1.31); double chance 1X rises to 92%. These are statistical estimates, not certainties: one match in three or four goes against the favourite.
Missing
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