Torino vs Lecce prediction
Serie A · · Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino, Turin
Full time
Updated:
Our statistical model, built on the odds of the sharpest bookmakers with their margin removed and adjusted for absences, form and news, gives Torino a 56% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Lecce 18%. The most likely result is 1-1. Expected goals: Torino 1.74, Lecce 0.91.
Match result
Goals
Most likely scores
Match analysis
Standings and form
Torino: position 11 with 14 points from 11 matches (won-drawn-lost 4-2-5), 15 goals scored and 17 conceded. Recent form: D L L W W.
Lecce: position 14 with 10 points from 11 matches (won-drawn-lost 3-1-7), 12 goals scored and 22 conceded. Recent form: D L L L W.
On average Torino take 1.30 points per game, Lecce 0.90.
Absences and team news
Torino are without G. Gineitis, C. Adams, P. Pellegri.
Lecce are without J. Siebert, L. Coulibaly, K. N’Dri, S. Pierotti.
Team news, Lecce: Lecce without Monteiro (calf), Pierotti (ankle surgery) and Ilic; Coulibaly has only partially resumed group training.
What the odds and the model say
Bookmaker odds, with their margin removed, start from 55% for Torino, 27% for the draw and 19% for Lecce. Accounting for absences, standings and news, the model moves them to 56%, 26% and 18%. The model's adjustments never move an outcome by more than 5 points.
Expected goals: Torino 1.74, Lecce 0.91, 2.65 in total. Over 2.5 at 49%, both teams to score at 50%; the most likely score is 1-1.
Kick-off forecast in Torino: 11.9 °C, no rain, wind 7 km/h, pitch wet.
In short
For the model the most likely outcome is a Torino win (56%, fair odds 1.79); double chance 1X rises to 82%. These are statistical estimates, not certainties: one match in three or four goes against the favourite.
Missing
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