Leeds vs Tottenham prediction
Premier League · · Elland Road, Leeds
Full time
Updated:
Our statistical model, built on the odds of the sharpest bookmakers with their margin removed and adjusted for absences, form and news, gives Leeds a 34% chance of winning, the draw 29% and Tottenham 37%. The most likely result is 1-1. Expected goals: Leeds 1.24, Tottenham 1.32.
Match result
Goals
Most likely scores
Match analysis
Standings and form
Leeds: position 8 with 14 points from 10 matches (won-drawn-lost 3-5-2), 10 goals scored and 8 conceded. Recent form: W L D D L.
Tottenham: position 10 with 12 points from 10 matches (won-drawn-lost 3-3-4), 10 goals scored and 11 conceded. Recent form: L W W W D.
On average Leeds take 1.22 points per game, Tottenham 1.33.
Absences and team news
Leeds are without A. Stach, N. Okafor.
Tottenham are without D. Solanke.
Team news, Tottenham: Savio, Bergvall and Mudryk remain unavailable; for Savio and Bergvall, a return is not expected before the international break.
Team news, Leeds: Stach and Okafor did not train with the squad this week and are doubtful for the match.
What the odds and the model say
Bookmaker odds, with their margin removed, start from 34% for Leeds, 29% for the draw and 37% for Tottenham. Absences, standings and news change little: the model stays at 34%, 29% and 37%.
Expected goals: Leeds 1.24, Tottenham 1.32, 2.55 in total. Over 2.5 at 47%, both teams to score at 53%; the most likely score is 1-1.
In short
For the model the most likely outcome is a Tottenham win (37%, fair odds 2.68); double chance X2 rises to 66%. These are statistical estimates, not certainties: one match in three or four goes against the favourite.
Missing
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