Nottingham Forest vs Manchester City prediction
Premier League · · City Ground, Nottingham
Full time
Updated:
Our statistical model, built on the odds of the sharpest bookmakers with their margin removed and adjusted for absences, form and news, gives Nottingham Forest a 17% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Manchester City 61%. The most likely result is 1-1. Expected goals: Nottingham Forest 1.01, Manchester City 2.08.
Match result
Goals
Most likely scores
Match analysis
Standings and form
Nottingham Forest: position 16 with 9 points from 10 matches (won-drawn-lost 2-3-5), 9 goals scored and 13 conceded. Recent form: W L D L L.
Manchester City: position 2 with 21 points from 10 matches (won-drawn-lost 7-0-3), 21 goals scored and 13 conceded. Recent form: L L L W W.
On average Nottingham Forest take 0.67 points per game, Manchester City 2.33.
Absences and team news
Nottingham Forest are without D. Ndoye.
Manchester City are without A. Semenyo, P. Foden.
What the odds and the model say
Bookmaker odds, with their margin removed, start from 18% for Nottingham Forest, 23% for the draw and 60% for Manchester City. Accounting for absences, standings and news, the model moves them to 17%, 22% and 61%. The model's adjustments never move an outcome by more than 5 points.
Expected goals: Nottingham Forest 1.01, Manchester City 2.08, 3.09 in total. Over 2.5 at 60%, both teams to score at 57%; the most likely score is 1-1. The expected total is high: the model expects an open game.
In short
For the model the most likely outcome is a Manchester City win (61%, fair odds 1.64); double chance X2 rises to 83%. These are statistical estimates, not certainties: one match in three or four goes against the favourite.
Missing
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