Arsenal vs Hull City prediction
Premier League · · Emirates Stadium, London
Full time
Updated:
Our statistical model, built on the odds of the sharpest bookmakers with their margin removed and adjusted for absences, form and news, gives Arsenal a 87% chance of winning, the draw 10% and Hull City 3%. The most likely result is 2-0. Expected goals: Arsenal 2.90, Hull City 0.40.
Match result
Goals
Most likely scores
Match analysis
Standings and form
Arsenal: position 1 with 27 points from 10 matches (won-drawn-lost 9-0-1), 15 goals scored and 5 conceded. Recent form: W W W W W.
Hull City: position 13 with 11 points from 10 matches (won-drawn-lost 2-5-3), 11 goals scored and 11 conceded. Recent form: L D D L D.
On average Arsenal take 2.67 points per game, Hull City 1.22.
Absences and team news
Arsenal are without M. Lewis-Skelly, B. White, B. Saka.
Hull City are without M. Belloumi, R. Giles, L. Herrington.
Team news, Arsenal: Bukayo Saka is out with a quadriceps problem and Max Dowman is suspended for the match against Hull.
Team news, Hull City: Hull loses Matt Crooks, who is suspended for the trip to the Emirates.
What the odds and the model say
Bookmaker odds, with their margin removed, start from 87% for Arsenal, 10% for the draw and 3% for Hull City. Absences, standings and news change little: the model stays at 87%, 10% and 3%.
Expected goals: Arsenal 2.90, Hull City 0.40, 3.30 in total. Over 2.5 at 64%, both teams to score at 31%; the most likely score is 2-0. The expected total is high: the model expects an open game.
Kick-off forecast in London: 10.7 °C, no rain, wind 2 km/h, pitch dry.
In short
For the model the most likely outcome is a Arsenal win (87%, fair odds 1.15); double chance 1X rises to 97%. These are statistical estimates, not certainties: one match in three or four goes against the favourite.
Missing
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