Fulham vs Newcastle prediction
Premier League · · Craven Cottage, London
Full time
Updated:
Our statistical model, built on the odds of the sharpest bookmakers with their margin removed and adjusted for absences, form and news, gives Fulham a 49% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Newcastle 25%. The most likely result is 1-1. Expected goals: Fulham 1.78, Newcastle 1.23.
Match result
Goals
Most likely scores
Match analysis
Standings and form
Fulham: position 15 with 10 points from 10 matches (won-drawn-lost 2-4-4), 10 goals scored and 12 conceded. Recent form: D D W W L.
Newcastle: position 11 with 12 points from 10 matches (won-drawn-lost 3-3-4), 13 goals scored and 16 conceded. Recent form: D L W L L.
On average Fulham take 1.00 points per game, Newcastle 1.22.
Absences and team news
Fulham report no significant absences.
Newcastle are without S. Botman, J. Willock, L. Miley.
Team news, Newcastle: Joelinton is out injured and Jacob Ramsey is suspended after his red card against Everton: two important absences for Newcastle.
What the odds and the model say
Bookmaker odds, with their margin removed, start from 49% for Fulham, 25% for the draw and 27% for Newcastle. Accounting for absences, standings and news, the model moves them to 49%, 25% and 25%. The model's adjustments never move an outcome by more than 5 points.
Expected goals: Fulham 1.78, Newcastle 1.23, 3.01 in total. Over 2.5 at 58%, both teams to score at 60%; the most likely score is 1-1. The expected total is high: the model expects an open game.
In short
For the model the most likely outcome is a Fulham win (49%, fair odds 2.03); double chance 1X rises to 75%. These are statistical estimates, not certainties: one match in three or four goes against the favourite.
Missing
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