Malaga vs Racing Santander prediction
La Liga · · La Rosaleda, Malaga
Full time
Updated:
Our statistical model, built on the odds of the sharpest bookmakers with their margin removed and adjusted for absences, form and news, gives Malaga a 38% chance of winning, the draw 28% and Racing Santander 34%. The most likely result is 1-1. Expected goals: Malaga 1.45, Racing Santander 1.37.
Match result
Goals
Most likely scores
Match analysis
Standings and form
Malaga: position 20 with 5 points from 12 matches (won-drawn-lost 0-5-7), 9 goals scored and 23 conceded. Recent form: L L D L D.
Racing Santander: position 9 with 14 points from 12 matches (won-drawn-lost 4-2-6), 17 goals scored and 30 conceded. Recent form: W L W L D.
On average Malaga take 0.45 points per game, Racing Santander 1.00.
Absences and team news
Malaga report no significant absences.
Racing Santander report no significant absences.
Team news, Racing Santander: Racing loses captain Mantilla, who has ruptured his anterior cruciate ligament and his season is over, and striker Andrés Martín, who has a hamstring injury; return expected at the end of November.
Team news, Malaga: Málaga will be without Diego Murillo, who has ruptured his cruciate ligament; return expected in January 2027.
What the odds and the model say
Bookmaker odds, with their margin removed, start from 38% for Malaga, 27% for the draw and 34% for Racing Santander. Absences, standings and news change little: the model stays at 38%, 28% and 34%.
Expected goals: Malaga 1.45, Racing Santander 1.37, 2.82 in total. Over 2.5 at 54%, both teams to score at 58%; the most likely score is 1-1.
In short
For the model the most likely outcome is a Malaga win (38%, fair odds 2.62); double chance 1X rises to 66%. These are statistical estimates, not certainties: one match in three or four goes against the favourite.
Missing
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