Osasuna vs Athletic Club prediction
La Liga · · Estadio El Sadar, Pamplona
Full time
Updated:
Our statistical model, built on the odds of the sharpest bookmakers with their margin removed and adjusted for absences, form and news, gives Osasuna a 22% chance of winning, the draw 29% and Athletic Club 49%. The most likely result is 1-1. Expected goals: Osasuna 0.93, Athletic Club 1.50.
Match result
Goals
Most likely scores
Match analysis
Standings and form
Osasuna: position 16 with 12 points from 12 matches (won-drawn-lost 3-3-6), 12 goals scored and 23 conceded. Recent form: D L L W L.
Athletic Club: position 7 with 16 points from 11 matches (won-drawn-lost 4-4-3), 15 goals scored and 11 conceded. Recent form: D W W L D.
On average Osasuna take 1.00 points per game, Athletic Club 1.50.
Absences and team news
Osasuna are without Íñigo Arguibide, Iker Muñoz, Sergio Herrera, Jonathan Dubasin.
Athletic Club are without Aitor Paredes, Yeray.
What the odds and the model say
Bookmaker odds, with their margin removed, start from 24% for Osasuna, 28% for the draw and 48% for Athletic Club. Accounting for absences, standings and news, the model moves them to 22%, 29% and 49%. The model's adjustments never move an outcome by more than 5 points.
Expected goals: Osasuna 0.93, Athletic Club 1.50, 2.43 in total. Over 2.5 at 44%, both teams to score at 48%; the most likely score is 1-1.
In short
For the model the most likely outcome is a Athletic Club win (49%, fair odds 2.03); double chance X2 rises to 78%. These are statistical estimates, not certainties: one match in three or four goes against the favourite.
Missing
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