Valencia vs Real Madrid prediction
La Liga · · Estadio de Mestalla, Valdivia
Full time
Updated:
Our statistical model, built on the odds of the sharpest bookmakers with their margin removed and adjusted for absences, form and news, gives Valencia a 6% chance of winning, the draw 14% and Real Madrid 81%. The most likely result is 0-2. Expected goals: Valencia 0.68, Real Madrid 2.80.
Match result
Goals
Most likely scores
Match analysis
Standings and form
Valencia: position 19 with 9 points from 12 matches (won-drawn-lost 2-3-7), 8 goals scored and 20 conceded. Recent form: L W L D D.
Real Madrid: position 2 with 30 points from 12 matches (won-drawn-lost 10-0-2), 31 goals scored and 10 conceded. Recent form: W W W W W.
On average Valencia take 0.82 points per game, Real Madrid 2.45.
Absences and team news
Valencia are without F. Ugrinic, Hugo Duro.
Real Madrid are without Vinícius Júnior.
Team news, Valencia: Valencia lose Canós, Diego López and Otorbi to injury; Copete is doubtful with a knee problem.
Team news, Real Madrid: Real Madrid without Vinícius, suspended for the last matchday, and Rodrygo, Asencio and Mendy are injured.
What the odds and the model say
Bookmaker odds, with their margin removed, start from 7% for Valencia, 14% for the draw and 79% for Real Madrid. Accounting for absences, standings and news, the model moves them to 6%, 14% and 81%. The model's adjustments never move an outcome by more than 5 points.
Expected goals: Valencia 0.68, Real Madrid 2.80, 3.48 in total. Over 2.5 at 68%, both teams to score at 47%; the most likely score is 0-2. The expected total is high: the model expects an open game.
Expected corners: 10 (over 9.5 at 53%). Expected yellow cards: 4.5, with referee Francisco Jose Hernandez Maeso (over 3.5 at 65%).
Kick-off forecast in Valencia: 16 °C, no rain, wind 5 km/h, pitch dry.
In short
For the model the most likely outcome is a Real Madrid win (81%, fair odds 1.24); double chance X2 rises to 94%. These are statistical estimates, not certainties: one match in three or four goes against the favourite.
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