Spartak Moscow vs Akron prediction
Premier League Russia · · Lukoil Arena, Moscow
Full time
Updated:
Our statistical model, built on the odds of the sharpest bookmakers with their margin removed and adjusted for absences, form and news, gives Spartak Moscow a 78% chance of winning, the draw 14% and Akron 8%. The most likely result is 3-0. Expected goals: Spartak Moscow 3.04, Akron 0.95.
Match result
Goals
Most likely scores
Match analysis
Standings and form
Spartak Moscow: position 5 with 26 points from 13 matches (won-drawn-lost 8-2-3), 25 goals scored and 10 conceded. Recent form: W L W D W.
Akron: position 14 with 12 points from 13 matches (won-drawn-lost 2-6-5), 16 goals scored and 23 conceded. Recent form: L W D L W.
On average Spartak Moscow take 2.00 points per game, Akron 0.92.
Absences and team news
Spartak Moscow report no significant absences.
Akron report no significant absences.
What the odds and the model say
Bookmaker odds, with their margin removed, start from 77% for Spartak Moscow, 14% for the draw and 8% for Akron. Absences, standings and news change little: the model stays at 78%, 14% and 8%.
Expected goals: Spartak Moscow 3.04, Akron 0.95, 3.99 in total. Over 2.5 at 76%, both teams to score at 59%; the most likely score is 3-0. The expected total is high: the model expects an open game.
Expected corners: 9.5 (over 9.5 at 48%). Expected yellow cards: 3.8, with referee Rafael Shafeev (over 3.5 at 52%).
Kick-off forecast in Moskva: 3.6 °C, no rain, wind 8 km/h, pitch dry.
Other factors
Spartak Moscow has a new coach, Carcedo, in charge for 38 days.
Akron has a new coach, S. Blagojević, in charge for 38 days.
These factors are shown for information: the model will use them only if studies show they improve the predictions.
In short
For the model the most likely outcome is a Spartak Moscow win (78%, fair odds 1.28); double chance 1X rises to 92%. These are statistical estimates, not certainties: one match in three or four goes against the favourite.
Missing
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