Baltika vs Dinamo Makhachkala prediction
Premier League Russia · · Rostec Arena, Kaliningrad
Live · 45'
Updated:
Our statistical model, built on the odds of the sharpest bookmakers with their margin removed and adjusted for absences, form and news, gives Baltika a 62% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Dinamo Makhachkala 12%. The most likely result is 1-0. Expected goals: Baltika 1.65, Dinamo Makhachkala 0.59.
Match result
Goals
Most likely scores
Match analysis
Standings and form
Baltika: position 8 with 17 points from 13 matches (won-drawn-lost 4-5-4), 17 goals scored and 14 conceded. Recent form: W D D D L.
Dinamo Makhachkala: position 12 with 13 points from 13 matches (won-drawn-lost 4-1-8), 16 goals scored and 26 conceded. Recent form: L L D L L.
On average Baltika take 1.31 points per game, Dinamo Makhachkala 1.00.
Absences and team news
Baltika report no significant absences.
Dinamo Makhachkala report no significant absences.
What the odds and the model say
Bookmaker odds, with their margin removed, start from 62% for Baltika, 24% for the draw and 13% for Dinamo Makhachkala. Accounting for absences, standings and news, the model moves them to 62%, 26% and 12%. The model's adjustments never move an outcome by more than 5 points.
Expected goals: Baltika 1.65, Dinamo Makhachkala 0.59, 2.24 in total. Over 2.5 at 39%, both teams to score at 37%; the most likely score is 1-0.
Expected corners: 9.5 (over 9.5 at 48%). Expected yellow cards: 3.8, with referee Sergei Ivanov (over 3.5 at 52%).
Kick-off forecast in Kaliningrad: 4.6 °C, no rain, wind 8 km/h, pitch dry.
Other factors
Dinamo Makhachkala has a new coach, V. Evseev, in charge for 38 days.
These factors are shown for information: the model will use them only if studies show they improve the predictions.
In short
For the model the most likely outcome is a Baltika win (62%, fair odds 1.61); double chance 1X rises to 88%. These are statistical estimates, not certainties: one match in three or four goes against the favourite.
Missing
Free daily picks on our Telegram channel
Join on Telegram