Zenit vs FC Rostov prediction
Premier League Russia · · Gazprom Arena, Saint Petersburg
Full time
Updated:
Our statistical model, built on the odds of the sharpest bookmakers with their margin removed and adjusted for absences, form and news, gives Zenit a 68% chance of winning, the draw 22% and FC Rostov 10%. The most likely result is 2-0. Expected goals: Zenit 1.98, FC Rostov 0.63.
Match result
Goals
Most likely scores
Match analysis
Standings and form
Zenit: position 2 with 30 points from 13 matches (won-drawn-lost 10-0-3), 30 goals scored and 13 conceded. Recent form: W W W W W.
FC Rostov: position 6 with 18 points from 13 matches (won-drawn-lost 5-3-5), 16 goals scored and 17 conceded. Recent form: W W D W L.
On average Zenit take 2.31 points per game, FC Rostov 1.38.
Absences and team news
Zenit are without D. Adamov, I. Diveev, R. Vega.
FC Rostov are without I. Komarov.
What the odds and the model say
Bookmaker odds, with their margin removed, start from 68% for Zenit, 20% for the draw and 11% for FC Rostov. Accounting for absences, standings and news, the model moves them to 68%, 22% and 10%. The model's adjustments never move an outcome by more than 5 points.
Expected goals: Zenit 1.98, FC Rostov 0.63, 2.61 in total. Over 2.5 at 49%, both teams to score at 41%; the most likely score is 2-0.
Expected corners: 9.5 (over 9.5 at 48%). Expected yellow cards: 3.8, with referee Stanislav Matveev (over 3.5 at 52%).
Kick-off forecast in St. Petersburg: 22.9 °C, no rain, wind 2 km/h, pitch dry.
In short
For the model the most likely outcome is a Zenit win (68%, fair odds 1.46); double chance 1X rises to 90%. These are statistical estimates, not certainties: one match in three or four goes against the favourite.
Missing
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