Jagiellonia vs GKS Katowice prediction
Ekstraklasa · · Stadion Miejski w Białymstoku, Bialystok
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Our statistical model, built on the odds of the sharpest bookmakers with their margin removed and adjusted for absences, form and news, gives Jagiellonia a 50% chance of winning, the draw 24% and GKS Katowice 26%. The most likely result is 1-1. Expected goals: Jagiellonia 1.96, GKS Katowice 1.37.
Match result
Goals
Most likely scores
Match analysis
Standings and form
Jagiellonia: position 10 with 18 points from 12 matches (won-drawn-lost 6-0-6), 17 goals scored and 18 conceded. Recent form: W W L L L.
GKS Katowice: position 8 with 21 points from 13 matches (won-drawn-lost 7-0-6), 25 goals scored and 19 conceded. Recent form: W L L W W.
On average Jagiellonia take 1.50 points per game, GKS Katowice 1.62.
Absences and team news
Jagiellonia report no significant absences.
GKS Katowice report no significant absences.
What the odds and the model say
Bookmaker odds, with their margin removed, start from 51% for Jagiellonia, 24% for the draw and 26% for GKS Katowice. Absences, standings and news change little: the model stays at 50%, 24% and 26%.
Expected goals: Jagiellonia 1.96, GKS Katowice 1.37, 3.33 in total. Over 2.5 at 65%, both teams to score at 65%; the most likely score is 1-1. The expected total is high: the model expects an open game.
Expected corners: 9.5 (over 9.5 at 47%). Expected yellow cards: 3.8, with referee Daniel Stefanski (over 3.5 at 53%).
Kick-off forecast in Białystok: 5.5 °C, no rain, wind 5 km/h, pitch dry.
In short
For the model the most likely outcome is a Jagiellonia win (50%, fair odds 1.99); double chance 1X rises to 74%. These are statistical estimates, not certainties: one match in three or four goes against the favourite.
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