Lech Poznan vs Zaglebie Lubin prediction
Ekstraklasa · · Stadion Miejski, Poznan
Updated:
Our statistical model, built on the odds of the sharpest bookmakers with their margin removed and adjusted for absences, form and news, gives Lech Poznan a 67% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Zaglebie Lubin 13%. The most likely result is 2-0. Expected goals: Lech Poznan 2.24, Zaglebie Lubin 0.91.
Match result
Goals
Most likely scores
Match analysis
Standings and form
Lech Poznan: position 1 with 31 points from 12 matches (won-drawn-lost 10-1-1), 32 goals scored and 11 conceded. Recent form: W W W W W.
Zaglebie Lubin: position 7 with 22 points from 13 matches (won-drawn-lost 6-4-3), 16 goals scored and 15 conceded. Recent form: W D W L L.
On average Lech Poznan take 2.58 points per game, Zaglebie Lubin 1.69.
Absences and team news
Lech Poznan report no significant absences.
Zaglebie Lubin report no significant absences.
What the odds and the model say
Bookmaker odds, with their margin removed, start from 66% for Lech Poznan, 20% for the draw and 14% for Zaglebie Lubin. Accounting for absences, standings and news, the model moves them to 67%, 20% and 13%. The model's adjustments never move an outcome by more than 5 points.
Expected goals: Lech Poznan 2.24, Zaglebie Lubin 0.91, 3.15 in total. Over 2.5 at 61%, both teams to score at 54%; the most likely score is 2-0. The expected total is high: the model expects an open game.
Expected corners: 9.8 (over 9.5 at 51%). Expected yellow cards: 3.7, with referee Karol Arys (over 3.5 at 51%).
In short
For the model the most likely outcome is a Lech Poznan win (67%, fair odds 1.50); double chance 1X rises to 87%. These are statistical estimates, not certainties: one match in three or four goes against the favourite.
Missing
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