Legia Warszawa vs Raków Częstochowa prediction
Ekstraklasa · · Polish Army Stadium, Warsaw
Full time
Updated:
Our statistical model, built on the odds of the sharpest bookmakers with their margin removed and adjusted for absences, form and news, gives Legia Warszawa a 50% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Raków Częstochowa 24%. The most likely result is 1-1. Expected goals: Legia Warszawa 1.69, Raków Częstochowa 1.10.
Match result
Goals
Most likely scores
Match analysis
Standings and form
Legia Warszawa: position 3 with 24 points from 13 matches (won-drawn-lost 6-6-1), 23 goals scored and 11 conceded. Recent form: D L D W W.
Raków Częstochowa: position 17 with 9 points from 13 matches (won-drawn-lost 3-0-10), 19 goals scored and 29 conceded. Recent form: W L W L L.
On average Legia Warszawa take 1.85 points per game, Raków Częstochowa 0.69.
Absences and team news
Legia Warszawa report no significant absences.
Raków Częstochowa are without K. Trelowski, Jean Carlos, K. Struski.
What the odds and the model say
Bookmaker odds, with their margin removed, start from 48% for Legia Warszawa, 27% for the draw and 25% for Raków Częstochowa. Accounting for absences, standings and news, the model moves them to 50%, 26% and 24%. The model's adjustments never move an outcome by more than 5 points.
Expected goals: Legia Warszawa 1.69, Raków Częstochowa 1.10, 2.79 in total. Over 2.5 at 53%, both teams to score at 56%; the most likely score is 1-1.
Expected corners: 9.6 (over 9.5 at 49%). Expected yellow cards: 3.9, with referee Jaroslaw Przybyl (over 3.5 at 53%).
Kick-off forecast in Warszawa: 9.7 °C, no rain, wind 21 km/h, pitch dry.
In short
For the model the most likely outcome is a Legia Warszawa win (50%, fair odds 2.00); double chance 1X rises to 76%. These are statistical estimates, not certainties: one match in three or four goes against the favourite.
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