Napoli vs Lazio prediction
Serie A · · Maradona Stadium, Naples
Full time
Updated:
Our statistical model, built on the odds of the sharpest bookmakers with their margin removed and adjusted for absences, form and news, gives Napoli a 43% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Lazio 30%. The most likely result is 1-1. Expected goals: Napoli 1.58, Lazio 1.31.
Match result
Goals
Most likely scores
Match analysis
Standings and form
Napoli: position 10 with 14 points from 10 matches (won-drawn-lost 4-2-4), 17 goals scored and 13 conceded. Recent form: L W D L W.
Lazio: position 1 with 28 points from 10 matches (won-drawn-lost 9-1-0), 24 goals scored and 8 conceded. Recent form: W W W W W.
On average Napoli take 1.40 points per game, Lazio 2.80.
Absences and team news
Napoli are without G. Di Lorenzo, A. Meret, M. Politano, S. Lobotka.
Lazio are without M. Zaccagni, Patric.
Team news, Lazio: Zaccagni, the captain, is out with a muscle problem: he will be sidelined for about a month.
Team news, Napoli: Di Lorenzo is out with a left adductor injury (about three weeks), and Marianucci is suspended.
What the odds and the model say
Bookmaker odds, with their margin removed, start from 46% for Napoli, 25% for the draw and 29% for Lazio. Accounting for absences, standings and news, the model moves them to 43%, 27% and 30%. The model's adjustments never move an outcome by more than 5 points.
Expected goals: Napoli 1.58, Lazio 1.31, 2.89 in total. Over 2.5 at 55%, both teams to score at 59%; the most likely score is 1-1.
Expected corners: 9.6 (over 9.5 at 49%). Expected yellow cards: 3.5, with referee Luca J. Pairetto (over 3.5 at 45%).
Kick-off forecast in Napoli: 31.4 °C, no rain, wind 4 km/h, pitch dry.
Other factors
Rest days since the last match: 4 for Napoli, 7 for Lazio.
These factors are shown for information: the model will use them only if studies show they improve the predictions.
In short
For the model the most likely outcome is a Napoli win (43%, fair odds 2.34); double chance 1X rises to 70%. These are statistical estimates, not certainties: one match in three or four goes against the favourite.
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