Monza vs Atalanta prediction
Serie A · · Stadio Brianteo, Monza
Full time
Updated:
Our statistical model, built on the odds of the sharpest bookmakers with their margin removed and adjusted for absences, form and news, gives Monza a 24% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Atalanta 51%. The most likely result is 1-1. Expected goals: Monza 1.26, Atalanta 1.90.
Match result
Goals
Most likely scores
Match analysis
Standings and form
Monza: position 18 with 7 points from 10 matches (won-drawn-lost 2-1-7), 17 goals scored and 24 conceded. Recent form: L L L W L.
Atalanta: position 13 with 11 points from 10 matches (won-drawn-lost 3-2-5), 16 goals scored and 20 conceded. Recent form: L D D L W.
On average Monza take 0.70 points per game, Atalanta 1.10.
Absences and team news
Monza are without S. Birindelli, A. Carboni, M. Ondoa, M. Folorunsho.
Atalanta are without G. Gaetano, R. Bellanova, T. Kristensen, I. Hien.
Team news, Atalanta: Besides the players already known to be out, Atalanta face an injury crisis: several players will not be available for Sarri.
What the odds and the model say
Bookmaker odds, with their margin removed, start from 24% for Monza, 24% for the draw and 51% for Atalanta. Absences, standings and news change little: the model stays at 24%, 24% and 51%.
Expected goals: Monza 1.26, Atalanta 1.90, 3.16 in total. Over 2.5 at 61%, both teams to score at 62%; the most likely score is 1-1. The expected total is high: the model expects an open game.
Expected corners: 9.7 (over 9.5 at 49%). Expected yellow cards: 2.9, with referee Claudio Giuseppe Allegretta (over 3.5 at 33%).
In short
For the model the most likely outcome is a Atalanta win (51%, fair odds 1.94); double chance X2 rises to 76%. These are statistical estimates, not certainties: one match in three or four goes against the favourite.
Missing
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