Fiorentina vs Juventus prediction
Serie A · · Stadio Artemio Franchi, Florence
Updated:
Our statistical model, built on the odds of the sharpest bookmakers with their margin removed and adjusted for absences, form and news, gives Fiorentina a 28% chance of winning, the draw 28% and Juventus 44%. The most likely result is 1-1. Expected goals: Fiorentina 1.16, Juventus 1.51.
Match result
Goals
Most likely scores
Match analysis
Standings and form
Fiorentina: position 15 with 8 points from 10 matches (won-drawn-lost 2-2-6), 15 goals scored and 23 conceded. Recent form: W D L L L.
Juventus: position 7 with 17 points from 10 matches (won-drawn-lost 5-2-3), 13 goals scored and 10 conceded. Recent form: W L W L D.
On average Fiorentina take 0.80 points per game, Juventus 1.70.
Absences and team news
Fiorentina are without R. Sottil.
Juventus report no significant absences.
Team news, Juventus: Cambiaso will miss the trip to Florence with a muscle problem: Cabal starts at left-back, Celik recovered for the bench.
What the odds and the model say
Bookmaker odds, with their margin removed, start from 28% for Fiorentina, 28% for the draw and 43% for Juventus. Absences, standings and news change little: the model stays at 28%, 28% and 44%.
Expected goals: Fiorentina 1.16, Juventus 1.51, 2.67 in total. Over 2.5 at 50%, both teams to score at 55%; the most likely score is 1-1.
Expected corners: 9.7 (over 9.5 at 50%). Expected yellow cards: 3.4, with referee Andrea Colombo (over 3.5 at 43%).
Other factors
Rest days since the last match: 6 for Fiorentina, 3 for Juventus.
These factors are shown for information: the model will use them only if studies show they improve the predictions.
In short
For the model the most likely outcome is a Juventus win (44%, fair odds 2.27); double chance X2 rises to 72%. These are statistical estimates, not certainties: one match in three or four goes against the favourite.
Missing
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