Inter vs Como prediction
Serie A · · San Siro/Giuseppe Meazza, Milan
Live · 16'
Updated:
Our statistical model, built on the odds of the sharpest bookmakers with their margin removed and adjusted for absences, form and news, gives Inter a 46% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Como 29%. The most likely result is 1-1. Expected goals: Inter 1.85, Como 1.44.
Match result
Goals
Most likely scores
Match analysis
Standings and form
Inter: position 3 with 25 points from 10 matches (won-drawn-lost 8-1-1), 26 goals scored and 13 conceded. Recent form: L W W W W.
Como: position 4 with 23 points from 10 matches (won-drawn-lost 7-2-1), 18 goals scored and 8 conceded. Recent form: W W W W D.
On average Inter take 2.50 points per game, Como 2.30.
Absences and team news
Inter are without Y. Bisseck, A. Diouf.
Como are without J. Butez, T. Chalobah.
Team news, Como: Chalobah is not yet fully recovered, and Como will have to do without a centre-back for the match against Inter.
What the odds and the model say
Bookmaker odds, with their margin removed, start from 46% for Inter, 24% for the draw and 30% for Como. Absences, standings and news change little: the model stays at 46%, 25% and 29%.
Expected goals: Inter 1.85, Como 1.44, 3.28 in total. Over 2.5 at 64%, both teams to score at 65%; the most likely score is 1-1. The expected total is high: the model expects an open game.
Expected corners: 9.8 (over 9.5 at 51%). Expected yellow cards: 3.3, with referee Daniele Chiffi (over 3.5 at 42%).
Kick-off forecast in Milano: 8.9 °C, no rain, wind 5 km/h, pitch dry.
In short
For the model the most likely outcome is a Inter win (46%, fair odds 2.16); double chance 1X rises to 71%. These are statistical estimates, not certainties: one match in three or four goes against the favourite.
Missing
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