Genoa vs AC Milan prediction
Serie A · · Luigi Ferraris, Genoa
Full time
Updated:
Our statistical model, built on the odds of the sharpest bookmakers with their margin removed and adjusted for absences, form and news, gives Genoa a 23% chance of winning, the draw 28% and AC Milan 49%. The most likely result is 1-1. Expected goals: Genoa 0.96, AC Milan 1.52.
Match result
Goals
Most likely scores
Match analysis
Standings and form
Genoa: position 12 with 13 points from 10 matches (won-drawn-lost 4-1-5), 10 goals scored and 14 conceded. Recent form: W W W L W.
AC Milan: position 5 with 21 points from 10 matches (won-drawn-lost 6-3-1), 21 goals scored and 12 conceded. Recent form: W L W W D.
On average Genoa take 1.30 points per game, AC Milan 2.10.
Absences and team news
Genoa are without M. Frendrup, T. Baldanzi, L. Colombo, L. Venturino.
AC Milan are without S. Pavlović, S. Chukwueze, A. Jashari.
What the odds and the model say
Bookmaker odds, with their margin removed, start from 23% for Genoa, 28% for the draw and 48% for AC Milan. Absences, standings and news change little: the model stays at 23%, 28% and 49%.
Expected goals: Genoa 0.96, AC Milan 1.52, 2.48 in total. Over 2.5 at 45%, both teams to score at 49%; the most likely score is 1-1.
Expected corners: 9.5 (over 9.5 at 47%). Expected yellow cards: 3, with referee Davide Massa (over 3.5 at 35%).
Kick-off forecast in Genova: 13.1 °C, no rain, wind 7 km/h, pitch dry.
Other factors
Rest days since the last match: 7 for Genoa, 3 for AC Milan.
These factors are shown for information: the model will use them only if studies show they improve the predictions.
In short
For the model the most likely outcome is a AC Milan win (49%, fair odds 2.04); double chance X2 rises to 77%. These are statistical estimates, not certainties: one match in three or four goes against the favourite.
Missing
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