Elche vs Real Betis prediction
La Liga · · Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero, Elche
Full time
Updated:
Our statistical model, built on the odds of the sharpest bookmakers with their margin removed and adjusted for absences, form and news, gives Elche a 22% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Real Betis 53%. The most likely result is 1-1. Expected goals: Elche 1.11, Real Betis 1.83.
Match result
Goals
Most likely scores
Match analysis
Standings and form
Elche: position 17 with 10 points from 11 matches (won-drawn-lost 2-4-5), 14 goals scored and 18 conceded. Recent form: L W D D W.
Real Betis: position 4 with 23 points from 11 matches (won-drawn-lost 7-2-2), 18 goals scored and 15 conceded. Recent form: W D L W D.
On average Elche take 0.91 points per game, Real Betis 2.09.
Absences and team news
Elche are without Gonzalo Villar, Buba Sangaré, Tete Morente.
Real Betis are without C. Hernández.
Team news, Elche: Lemar and Marc Aguado are injured, and Elche lose two midfielders; Lemar will be out 2-3 weeks with an adductor injury.
Team news, Real Betis: Betis lose Cucho Hernández, injured, and Facundo Bernal, suspended for one more match: two key players, one in attack and one in midfield.
What the odds and the model say
Bookmaker odds, with their margin removed, start from 24% for Elche, 25% for the draw and 52% for Real Betis. Accounting for absences, standings and news, the model moves them to 22%, 25% and 53%. The model's adjustments never move an outcome by more than 5 points.
Expected goals: Elche 1.11, Real Betis 1.83, 2.95 in total. Over 2.5 at 56%, both teams to score at 57%; the most likely score is 1-1.
Expected corners: 9.6 (over 9.5 at 49%). Expected yellow cards: 4.6, with referee Cesar Soto Grado (over 3.5 at 67%).
Other factors
Rest days since the last match: 7 for Elche, 4 for Real Betis.
These factors are shown for information: the model will use them only if studies show they improve the predictions.
In short
For the model the most likely outcome is a Real Betis win (53%, fair odds 1.88); double chance X2 rises to 78%. These are statistical estimates, not certainties: one match in three or four goes against the favourite.
Missing
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