Villarreal vs Getafe prediction
La Liga · · Estadio de la Cerámica, Villarreal
Live · 23'
Updated:
Our statistical model, built on the odds of the sharpest bookmakers with their margin removed and adjusted for absences, form and news, gives Villarreal a 63% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Getafe 14%. The most likely result is 2-0. Expected goals: Villarreal 1.96, Getafe 0.84.
Match result
Goals
Most likely scores
Match analysis
Standings and form
Villarreal: position 11 with 12 points from 11 matches (won-drawn-lost 3-3-5), 15 goals scored and 15 conceded. Recent form: L W D L W.
Getafe: position 15 with 12 points from 11 matches (won-drawn-lost 3-3-5), 8 goals scored and 16 conceded. Recent form: W L D L W.
On average Villarreal take 1.09 points per game, Getafe 1.09.
Absences and team news
Villarreal are without Santi Comesaña, A. Freeman, Ayoze Pérez, Pau Navarro.
Getafe are without Ramón Terrats, Francho Serrano, Z. Romero.
Team news, Getafe: Juanmi Jiménez is out with a knee problem and Chrisantus Uche with a cruciate ligament rupture: reduced attacking options.
Team news, Villarreal: Iñigo Pérez is under pressure after consecutive defeats, including a 6-0 loss to PSG, though the board still backs him.
What the odds and the model say
Bookmaker odds, with their margin removed, start from 63% for Villarreal, 22% for the draw and 15% for Getafe. Absences, standings and news change little: the model stays at 63%, 23% and 14%.
Expected goals: Villarreal 1.96, Getafe 0.84, 2.81 in total. Over 2.5 at 53%, both teams to score at 50%; the most likely score is 2-0.
Expected corners: 10.1 (over 9.5 at 54%). Expected yellow cards: 5.1, with referee Carlos Muñiz Muñoz (over 3.5 at 74%).
Kick-off forecast in Villarreal: 20.8 °C, no rain, wind 15 km/h, pitch dry.
Other factors
Rest days since the last match: 5 for Villarreal, 3 for Getafe.
Villarreal has a new coach, Iñigo Pérez, in charge for 38 days.
These factors are shown for information: the model will use them only if studies show they improve the predictions.
In short
For the model the most likely outcome is a Villarreal win (63%, fair odds 1.60); double chance 1X rises to 86%. These are statistical estimates, not certainties: one match in three or four goes against the favourite.
Missing
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