Atletico Madrid vs Barcelona prediction
La Liga · · Riyadh Air Metropolitano, Madrid
Updated:
Our statistical model, built on the odds of the sharpest bookmakers with their margin removed and adjusted for absences, form and news, gives Atletico Madrid a 27% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Barcelona 51%. The most likely result is 1-1. Expected goals: Atletico Madrid 1.54, Barcelona 2.14.
Match result
Goals
Most likely scores
Match analysis
Standings and form
Atletico Madrid: position 3 with 28 points from 11 matches (won-drawn-lost 9-1-1), 22 goals scored and 8 conceded. Recent form: W W W W W.
Barcelona: position 1 with 30 points from 11 matches (won-drawn-lost 10-0-1), 46 goals scored and 12 conceded. Recent form: W L W W W.
On average Atletico Madrid take 2.55 points per game, Barcelona 2.73.
Absences and team news
Atletico Madrid report no significant absences.
Barcelona report no significant absences.
Team news, Barcelona: Dani Olmo is out with a thigh muscle injury and is expected back only at the end of November.
What the odds and the model say
Bookmaker odds, with their margin removed, start from 28% for Atletico Madrid, 21% for the draw and 51% for Barcelona. Absences, standings and news change little: the model stays at 27%, 22% and 51%.
Expected goals: Atletico Madrid 1.54, Barcelona 2.14, 3.69 in total. Over 2.5 at 71%, both teams to score at 70%; the most likely score is 1-1. The expected total is high: the model expects an open game.
Expected corners: 9.4 (over 9.5 at 46%). Expected yellow cards: 3.9, with referee Javier Alberola Rojas (over 3.5 at 53%).
In short
For the model the most likely outcome is a Barcelona win (51%, fair odds 1.97); double chance X2 rises to 73%. These are statistical estimates, not certainties: one match in three or four goes against the favourite.
Missing
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