Real Sociedad vs Rayo Vallecano prediction
La Liga · · Anoeta Stadium, San Sebastian
Full time
Updated:
Our statistical model, built on the odds of the sharpest bookmakers with their margin removed and adjusted for absences, form and news, gives Real Sociedad a 53% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Rayo Vallecano 23%. The most likely result is 1-1. Expected goals: Real Sociedad 1.93, Rayo Vallecano 1.23.
Match result
Goals
Most likely scores
Match analysis
Standings and form
Real Sociedad: position 5 with 19 points from 11 matches (won-drawn-lost 6-1-4), 20 goals scored and 20 conceded. Recent form: L W W W W.
Rayo Vallecano: position 14 with 12 points from 10 matches (won-drawn-lost 3-3-4), 15 goals scored and 20 conceded. Recent form: W L D D W.
On average Real Sociedad take 1.73 points per game, Rayo Vallecano 1.20.
Absences and team news
Real Sociedad report no significant absences.
Rayo Vallecano report no significant absences.
What the odds and the model say
Bookmaker odds, with their margin removed, start from 52% for Real Sociedad, 25% for the draw and 23% for Rayo Vallecano. Absences, standings and news change little: the model stays at 53%, 24% and 23%.
Expected goals: Real Sociedad 1.93, Rayo Vallecano 1.23, 3.15 in total. Over 2.5 at 61%, both teams to score at 61%; the most likely score is 1-1. The expected total is high: the model expects an open game.
Expected corners: 10.5 (over 9.5 at 59%). Expected yellow cards: 4.6, with referee Juan Martinez Munuera (over 3.5 at 66%).
Kick-off forecast in Donostia-San Sebastián: 21.9 °C, no rain, wind 15 km/h, pitch dry.
In short
For the model the most likely outcome is a Real Sociedad win (53%, fair odds 1.90); double chance 1X rises to 77%. These are statistical estimates, not certainties: one match in three or four goes against the favourite.
Missing
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