Celta Vigo vs Levante prediction
La Liga · · Municipal de Balaídos, Vigo
Live · 20'
Updated:
Our statistical model, built on the odds of the sharpest bookmakers with their margin removed and adjusted for absences, form and news, gives Celta Vigo a 52% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Levante 21%. The most likely result is 1-1. Expected goals: Celta Vigo 1.65, Levante 0.97.
Match result
Goals
Most likely scores
Match analysis
Standings and form
Celta Vigo: position 12 with 12 points from 11 matches (won-drawn-lost 2-6-3), 10 goals scored and 10 conceded. Recent form: L D W D W.
Levante: position 18 with 10 points from 11 matches (won-drawn-lost 2-4-5), 16 goals scored and 21 conceded. Recent form: L L W D D.
On average Celta Vigo take 1.09 points per game, Levante 0.91.
Absences and team news
Celta Vigo are without Yoel Lago, Ferran Jutglà, Hugo Álvarez, Miguel Román.
Levante are without Manu Sánchez, Iván Romero, Dela, Oriol Rey.
Team news, Celta Vigo: Borja Iglesias and Starfelt are out, plus Álvaro Núñez: heavy absences across attack and defence.
Team news, Levante: Enzo Bardeli (hamstring) is listed out, though not all reports agree: his fitness remains uncertain.
What the odds and the model say
Bookmaker odds, with their margin removed, start from 53% for Celta Vigo, 26% for the draw and 21% for Levante. Absences, standings and news change little: the model stays at 52%, 27% and 21%.
Expected goals: Celta Vigo 1.65, Levante 0.97, 2.62 in total. Over 2.5 at 49%, both teams to score at 51%; the most likely score is 1-1.
Expected corners: 9.5 (over 9.5 at 47%). Expected yellow cards: 4, with referee Miguel Angel Ortiz Arias (over 3.5 at 55%).
Kick-off forecast in Vigo: 20.5 °C, no rain, wind 14 km/h, pitch dry.
In short
For the model the most likely outcome is a Celta Vigo win (52%, fair odds 1.92); double chance 1X rises to 79%. These are statistical estimates, not certainties: one match in three or four goes against the favourite.
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