Brighton vs Brentford prediction
Premier League · · American Express Stadium, Falmer
Full time
Updated:
Our statistical model, built on the odds of the sharpest bookmakers with their margin removed and adjusted for absences, form and news, gives Brighton a 52% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Brentford 23%. The most likely result is 1-1. Expected goals: Brighton 1.91, Brentford 1.22.
Match result
Goals
Most likely scores
Match analysis
Standings and form
Brighton: position 3 with 19 points from 9 matches (won-drawn-lost 6-1-2), 24 goals scored and 7 conceded. Recent form: W L W W W.
Brentford: position 7 with 14 points from 9 matches (won-drawn-lost 3-5-1), 16 goals scored and 9 conceded. Recent form: W D L D W.
On average Brighton take 2.11 points per game, Brentford 1.56.
Absences and team news
Brighton are without M. Yalcouyé.
Brentford are without J. Anthony, M. Damsgaard.
What the odds and the model say
Bookmaker odds, with their margin removed, start from 51% for Brighton, 25% for the draw and 24% for Brentford. Accounting for absences, standings and news, the model moves them to 52%, 24% and 23%. The model's adjustments never move an outcome by more than 5 points.
Expected goals: Brighton 1.91, Brentford 1.22, 3.13 in total. Over 2.5 at 61%, both teams to score at 61%; the most likely score is 1-1. The expected total is high: the model expects an open game.
Expected corners: 9.5 (over 9.5 at 47%). Expected yellow cards: 3.5, with referee Michael Oliver (over 3.5 at 47%).
Kick-off forecast in Falmer: 10.6 °C, no rain, wind 7 km/h, pitch dry.
In short
For the model the most likely outcome is a Brighton win (52%, fair odds 1.91); double chance 1X rises to 77%. These are statistical estimates, not certainties: one match in three or four goes against the favourite.
Missing
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