Sunderland vs Chelsea prediction
Premier League · · Stadium of Light, Sunderland
Full time
Updated:
Our statistical model, built on the odds of the sharpest bookmakers with their margin removed and adjusted for absences, form and news, gives Sunderland a 29% chance of winning, the draw 28% and Chelsea 44%. The most likely result is 1-1. Expected goals: Sunderland 1.19, Chelsea 1.52.
Match result
Goals
Most likely scores
Match analysis
Standings and form
Sunderland: position 20 with 5 points from 9 matches (won-drawn-lost 1-2-6), 7 goals scored and 17 conceded. Recent form: L D L L L.
Chelsea: position 4 with 16 points from 9 matches (won-drawn-lost 5-1-3), 19 goals scored and 15 conceded. Recent form: W L W W L.
On average Sunderland take 0.56 points per game, Chelsea 1.78.
Absences and team news
Sunderland are without N. Angulo, K. Danso.
Chelsea are without M. Lacroix, Joshua Kofi Acheampong, João Pedro, E. Martínez.
What the odds and the model say
Bookmaker odds, with their margin removed, start from 29% for Sunderland, 27% for the draw and 43% for Chelsea. Absences, standings and news change little: the model stays at 29%, 28% and 44%.
Expected goals: Sunderland 1.19, Chelsea 1.52, 2.70 in total. Over 2.5 at 51%, both teams to score at 55%; the most likely score is 1-1.
Expected corners: 10 (over 9.5 at 53%). Expected yellow cards: 4.2, with referee Jarred Gillett (over 3.5 at 59%).
Kick-off forecast in Sunderland: 9.6 °C, no rain, wind 8 km/h, pitch dry.
In short
For the model the most likely outcome is a Chelsea win (44%, fair odds 2.29); double chance X2 rises to 71%. These are statistical estimates, not certainties: one match in three or four goes against the favourite.
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