Manchester United vs Aston Villa prediction
Premier League · · Old Trafford, Manchester
Full time
Updated:
Our statistical model, built on the odds of the sharpest bookmakers with their margin removed and adjusted for absences, form and news, gives Manchester United a 48% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Aston Villa 27%. The most likely result is 1-1. Expected goals: Manchester United 1.80, Aston Villa 1.32.
Match result
Goals
Most likely scores
Match analysis
Standings and form
Manchester United: position 18 with 7 points from 9 matches (won-drawn-lost 1-4-4), 10 goals scored and 15 conceded. Recent form: L L D D D.
Aston Villa: position 12 with 12 points from 9 matches (won-drawn-lost 3-3-3), 10 goals scored and 13 conceded. Recent form: D W W D W.
On average Manchester United take 0.78 points per game, Aston Villa 1.33.
Absences and team news
Manchester United are without Lisandro Martínez, Andrey Santos.
Aston Villa are without E. Buendía, M. Cash, João Gomes, T. Mings.
What the odds and the model say
Bookmaker odds, with their margin removed, start from 48% for Manchester United, 24% for the draw and 28% for Aston Villa. Absences, standings and news change little: the model stays at 48%, 25% and 27%.
Expected goals: Manchester United 1.80, Aston Villa 1.32, 3.12 in total. Over 2.5 at 60%, both teams to score at 62%; the most likely score is 1-1. The expected total is high: the model expects an open game.
Expected corners: 9.5 (over 9.5 at 47%). Expected yellow cards: 4.8, with referee Chris Kavanagh (over 3.5 at 69%).
Kick-off forecast in Manchester: 9 °C, no rain, wind 6 km/h, pitch dry.
In short
For the model the most likely outcome is a Manchester United win (48%, fair odds 2.11); double chance 1X rises to 73%. These are statistical estimates, not certainties: one match in three or four goes against the favourite.
Missing
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