Crystal Palace vs Liverpool prediction
Premier League · · Selhurst Park, London
Full time
Updated:
Our statistical model, built on the odds of the sharpest bookmakers with their margin removed and adjusted for absences, form and news, gives Crystal Palace a 15% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Liverpool 65%. The most likely result is 1-2. Expected goals: Crystal Palace 1.03, Liverpool 2.29.
Match result
Goals
Most likely scores
Match analysis
Standings and form
Crystal Palace: position 19 with 7 points from 9 matches (won-drawn-lost 2-1-6), 9 goals scored and 21 conceded. Recent form: L L L W D.
Liverpool: position 6 with 15 points from 9 matches (won-drawn-lost 4-3-2), 11 goals scored and 9 conceded. Recent form: L W W L W.
On average Crystal Palace take 0.78 points per game, Liverpool 1.67.
Absences and team news
Crystal Palace are without J. Canvot, A. Khalaili, W. Benítez.
Liverpool are without R. Gravenberch.
What the odds and the model say
Bookmaker odds, with their margin removed, start from 16% for Crystal Palace, 21% for the draw and 63% for Liverpool. Accounting for absences, standings and news, the model moves them to 15%, 20% and 65%. The model's adjustments never move an outcome by more than 5 points.
Expected goals: Crystal Palace 1.03, Liverpool 2.29, 3.32 in total. Over 2.5 at 64%, both teams to score at 59%; the most likely score is 1-2. The expected total is high: the model expects an open game.
Expected corners: 9.8 (over 9.5 at 50%). Expected yellow cards: 3.8, with referee Tony Harrington (over 3.5 at 52%).
Other factors
Rest days since the last match: 3 for Crystal Palace, 4 for Liverpool.
These factors are shown for information: the model will use them only if studies show they improve the predictions.
In short
For the model the most likely outcome is a Liverpool win (65%, fair odds 1.54); double chance X2 rises to 85%. These are statistical estimates, not certainties: one match in three or four goes against the favourite.
Missing
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