Ipswich vs Bournemouth prediction
Premier League · · Portman Road Stadium, Ipswich
Full time
Updated:
Our statistical model, built on the odds of the sharpest bookmakers with their margin removed and adjusted for absences, form and news, gives Ipswich a 25% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Bournemouth 49%. The most likely result is 1-1. Expected goals: Ipswich 1.18, Bournemouth 1.73.
Match result
Goals
Most likely scores
Match analysis
Standings and form
Ipswich: position 14 with 11 points from 9 matches (won-drawn-lost 3-2-4), 14 goals scored and 18 conceded. Recent form: D D L W L.
Bournemouth: position 9 with 12 points from 9 matches (won-drawn-lost 3-3-3), 14 goals scored and 13 conceded. Recent form: W W W L L.
On average Ipswich take 1.22 points per game, Bournemouth 1.33.
Absences and team news
Ipswich are without J. Greaves, A. Fatawu, S. Lukić.
Bournemouth are without L. Cook.
What the odds and the model say
Bookmaker odds, with their margin removed, start from 26% for Ipswich, 26% for the draw and 49% for Bournemouth. Absences, standings and news change little: the model stays at 25%, 26% and 49%.
Expected goals: Ipswich 1.18, Bournemouth 1.73, 2.91 in total. Over 2.5 at 56%, both teams to score at 58%; the most likely score is 1-1.
Expected corners: 9.2 (over 9.5 at 43%). Expected yellow cards: 4.3, with referee Simon Hooper (over 3.5 at 61%).
Kick-off forecast in Ipswich: 10.2 °C, no rain, wind 7 km/h, pitch dry.
In short
For the model the most likely outcome is a Bournemouth win (49%, fair odds 2.03); double chance X2 rises to 75%. These are statistical estimates, not certainties: one match in three or four goes against the favourite.
Missing
Free daily picks on our Telegram channel
Join on Telegram