A. Italiano vs Coquimbo Unido prediction
Primera División de Chile · · Estadio Bicentenario Municipal de La Florida, La Florida
Full time
Updated:
Our statistical model, built on the odds of the sharpest bookmakers with their margin removed and adjusted for absences, form and news, gives A. Italiano a 30% chance of winning, the draw 29% and Coquimbo Unido 42%. The most likely result is 1-1. Expected goals: A. Italiano 1.18, Coquimbo Unido 1.44.
Match result
Goals
Most likely scores
Match analysis
Standings and form
A. Italiano: position 13 with 30 points from 26 matches (won-drawn-lost 7-9-10), 28 goals scored and 35 conceded. Recent form: L D D W W.
Coquimbo Unido: position 9 with 35 points from 25 matches (won-drawn-lost 10-5-10), 38 goals scored and 35 conceded. Recent form: W L W L L.
On average A. Italiano take 1.15 points per game, Coquimbo Unido 1.40.
Absences and team news
A. Italiano are without D. Piña, G. Chiaverano, E. Matus.
Coquimbo Unido are without A. Camargo, C. Zavala, N. Johansen.
What the odds and the model say
Bookmaker odds, with their margin removed, start from 30% for A. Italiano, 28% for the draw and 42% for Coquimbo Unido. Absences, standings and news change little: the model stays at 30%, 29% and 42%.
Expected goals: A. Italiano 1.18, Coquimbo Unido 1.44, 2.61 in total. Over 2.5 at 49%, both teams to score at 54%; the most likely score is 1-1.
Expected corners: 10.3 (over 9.5 at 56%). Expected yellow cards: 4.7, with referee Matias Humberto Assadi Quintana (over 3.5 at 68%).
Other factors
A. Italiano has a new coach, P. Graff, in charge for 38 days.
These factors are shown for information: the model will use them only if studies show they improve the predictions.
In short
For the model the most likely outcome is a Coquimbo Unido win (42%, fair odds 2.40); double chance X2 rises to 70%. These are statistical estimates, not certainties: one match in three or four goes against the favourite.
Missing
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