Universidad de Chile vs Cobresal prediction
Primera División de Chile · · Estadio Nacional Julio Martínez Prádanos, Santiago
Live · 45'
Updated:
Our statistical model, built on the odds of the sharpest bookmakers with their margin removed and adjusted for absences, form and news, gives Universidad de Chile a 79% chance of winning, the draw 15% and Cobresal 7%. The most likely result is 2-0. Expected goals: Universidad de Chile 2.75, Cobresal 0.74.
Match result
Goals
Most likely scores
Match analysis
Standings and form
Universidad de Chile: position 2 with 48 points from 26 matches (won-drawn-lost 14-6-6), 45 goals scored and 21 conceded. Recent form: L W W W W.
Cobresal: position 14 with 27 points from 26 matches (won-drawn-lost 7-6-13), 38 goals scored and 48 conceded. Recent form: D D D W L.
On average Universidad de Chile take 1.85 points per game, Cobresal 1.04.
Absences and team news
Universidad de Chile are without M. Guerrero, I. Poblete, J. Altamirano.
Cobresal are without C. Yanis, J. Fuentes, B. Carvallo.
Team news, Universidad de Chile: Maximiliano Guerrero is suspended and will not be available for U de Chile against Cobresal.
What the odds and the model say
Bookmaker odds, with their margin removed, start from 78% for Universidad de Chile, 14% for the draw and 8% for Cobresal. Absences, standings and news change little: the model stays at 79%, 15% and 7%.
Expected goals: Universidad de Chile 2.75, Cobresal 0.74, 3.49 in total. Over 2.5 at 68%, both teams to score at 50%; the most likely score is 2-0. The expected total is high: the model expects an open game.
Expected corners: 10.5 (over 9.5 at 59%). Expected yellow cards: 4.2, with referee Piero Maza Gomez (over 3.5 at 59%).
In short
For the model the most likely outcome is a Universidad de Chile win (79%, fair odds 1.27); double chance 1X rises to 93%. These are statistical estimates, not certainties: one match in three or four goes against the favourite.
Missing
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