Nublense vs Colo Colo prediction
Primera División de Chile · · Estadio Municipal Nelson Oyarzún Arenas, Chillan
Updated:
Our statistical model, built on the odds of the sharpest bookmakers with their margin removed and adjusted for absences, form and news, gives Nublense a 23% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Colo Colo 51%. The most likely result is 1-1. Expected goals: Nublense 1.11, Colo Colo 1.73.
Match result
Goals
Most likely scores
Match analysis
Standings and form
Nublense: position 10 with 35 points from 26 matches (won-drawn-lost 9-8-9), 30 goals scored and 39 conceded. Recent form: L W L L L.
Colo Colo: position 1 with 58 points from 26 matches (won-drawn-lost 18-4-4), 57 goals scored and 29 conceded. Recent form: W D L D D.
On average Nublense take 1.35 points per game, Colo Colo 2.23.
Absences and team news
Nublense are without S. Valencia, I. Jeraldino, F. Campos.
Colo Colo report no significant absences.
What the odds and the model say
Bookmaker odds, with their margin removed, start from 25% for Nublense, 26% for the draw and 49% for Colo Colo. Accounting for absences, standings and news, the model moves them to 23%, 26% and 51%. The model's adjustments never move an outcome by more than 5 points.
Expected goals: Nublense 1.11, Colo Colo 1.73, 2.84 in total. Over 2.5 at 54%, both teams to score at 56%; the most likely score is 1-1.
Expected corners: 9.8 (over 9.5 at 51%). Expected yellow cards: 4.2, with referee Juan Lara (over 3.5 at 60%).
In short
For the model the most likely outcome is a Colo Colo win (51%, fair odds 1.97); double chance X2 rises to 77%. These are statistical estimates, not certainties: one match in three or four goes against the favourite.
Missing
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