U. Catolica vs Deportes Limache prediction
Primera División de Chile · · San Carlos de Apoquindo, Santiago
Full time
Updated:
Our statistical model, built on the odds of the sharpest bookmakers with their margin removed and adjusted for absences, form and news, gives U. Catolica a 62% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Deportes Limache 16%. The most likely result is 1-1. Expected goals: U. Catolica 2.11, Deportes Limache 1.01.
Match result
Goals
Most likely scores
Match analysis
Standings and form
U. Catolica: position 3 with 46 points from 26 matches (won-drawn-lost 14-4-8), 53 goals scored and 37 conceded. Recent form: W D L W W.
Deportes Limache: position 4 with 40 points from 26 matches (won-drawn-lost 12-4-10), 48 goals scored and 37 conceded. Recent form: W W D L W.
On average U. Catolica take 1.77 points per game, Deportes Limache 1.54.
Absences and team news
U. Catolica report no significant absences.
Deportes Limache are without M. Flores, C. González, Y. González, R. Martínez.
What the odds and the model say
Bookmaker odds, with their margin removed, start from 61% for U. Catolica, 21% for the draw and 18% for Deportes Limache. Accounting for absences, standings and news, the model moves them to 62%, 22% and 16%. The model's adjustments never move an outcome by more than 5 points.
Expected goals: U. Catolica 2.11, Deportes Limache 1.01, 3.12 in total. Over 2.5 at 60%, both teams to score at 57%; the most likely score is 1-1. The expected total is high: the model expects an open game.
Expected corners: 10 (over 9.5 at 53%). Expected yellow cards: 4.5, with referee Franco Esteban Jimenez Lazo (over 3.5 at 64%).
In short
For the model the most likely outcome is a U. Catolica win (62%, fair odds 1.62); double chance 1X rises to 84%. These are statistical estimates, not certainties: one match in three or four goes against the favourite.
Missing
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