Çorum FK vs Fenerbahçe prediction
Süper Lig · · Çorum Şehir Stadyumu, Corum
Full time
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Our statistical model, built on the odds of the sharpest bookmakers with their margin removed and adjusted for absences, form and news, gives Çorum FK a 26% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Fenerbahçe 49%. The most likely result is 1-1. Expected goals: Çorum FK 1.28, Fenerbahçe 1.83.
Match result
Goals
Most likely scores
Match analysis
Standings and form
Çorum FK: position 9 with 16 points from 10 matches (won-drawn-lost 5-1-4), 21 goals scored and 16 conceded. Recent form: W L W W L.
Fenerbahçe: position 8 with 16 points from 10 matches (won-drawn-lost 5-1-4), 24 goals scored and 10 conceded. Recent form: L L W W W.
On average Çorum FK take 1.60 points per game, Fenerbahçe 1.60.
Absences and team news
Çorum FK report no significant absences.
Fenerbahçe report no significant absences.
What the odds and the model say
Bookmaker odds, with their margin removed, start from 26% for Çorum FK, 25% for the draw and 49% for Fenerbahçe. Absences, standings and news change little: the model stays at 26%, 25% and 49%.
Expected goals: Çorum FK 1.28, Fenerbahçe 1.83, 3.11 in total. Over 2.5 at 60%, both teams to score at 62%; the most likely score is 1-1. The expected total is high: the model expects an open game.
Expected corners: 9.7 (over 9.5 at 50%). Expected yellow cards: 3.8, with referee A. B. Taskinsoy (over 3.5 at 51%).
In short
For the model the most likely outcome is a Fenerbahçe win (49%, fair odds 2.04); double chance X2 rises to 74%. These are statistical estimates, not certainties: one match in three or four goes against the favourite.
Missing
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