Alanyaspor vs Trabzonspor prediction
Süper Lig · · Bahcesehir Okullari Stadium, Alanya
Full time
Updated:
Our statistical model, built on the odds of the sharpest bookmakers with their margin removed and adjusted for absences, form and news, gives Alanyaspor a 16% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Trabzonspor 60%. The most likely result is 1-1. Expected goals: Alanyaspor 0.95, Trabzonspor 1.98.
Match result
Goals
Most likely scores
Match analysis
Standings and form
Alanyaspor: position 12 with 12 points from 10 matches (won-drawn-lost 3-3-4), 9 goals scored and 16 conceded. Recent form: L L L D W.
Trabzonspor: position 3 with 22 points from 10 matches (won-drawn-lost 7-1-2), 24 goals scored and 8 conceded. Recent form: W W W W W.
On average Alanyaspor take 1.20 points per game, Trabzonspor 2.20.
Absences and team news
Alanyaspor are without G. Makouta, İ. Kaya, F. Aksoy.
Trabzonspor are without M. Eskihellaç, A. Şimşir, M. Kabasakal.
What the odds and the model say
Bookmaker odds, with their margin removed, start from 17% for Alanyaspor, 23% for the draw and 59% for Trabzonspor. Absences, standings and news change little: the model stays at 16%, 23% and 60%.
Expected goals: Alanyaspor 0.95, Trabzonspor 1.98, 2.92 in total. Over 2.5 at 56%, both teams to score at 54%; the most likely score is 1-1.
Expected corners: 9.8 (over 9.5 at 50%). Expected yellow cards: 3.9, with referee O. Cakir (over 3.5 at 54%).
Other factors
Trabzonspor has a new coach, T. Reis, in charge for 38 days.
These factors are shown for information: the model will use them only if studies show they improve the predictions.
In short
For the model the most likely outcome is a Trabzonspor win (60%, fair odds 1.66); double chance X2 rises to 84%. These are statistical estimates, not certainties: one match in three or four goes against the favourite.
Missing
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