Beşiktaş vs Gençlerbirliği S.K. prediction
Süper Lig · · Tupras Stadium, Istanbul
Live · 45'
Updated:
Our statistical model, built on the odds of the sharpest bookmakers with their margin removed and adjusted for absences, form and news, gives Beşiktaş a 85% chance of winning, the draw 11% and Gençlerbirliği S.K. 4%. The most likely result is 3-0. Expected goals: Beşiktaş 3.07, Gençlerbirliği S.K. 0.63.
Match result
Goals
Most likely scores
Match analysis
Standings and form
Beşiktaş: position 5 with 19 points from 10 matches (won-drawn-lost 6-1-3), 20 goals scored and 12 conceded. Recent form: D W L W L.
Gençlerbirliği S.K.: position 14 with 11 points from 10 matches (won-drawn-lost 3-2-5), 12 goals scored and 18 conceded. Recent form: W L L D L.
On average Beşiktaş take 1.90 points per game, Gençlerbirliği S.K. 1.10.
Absences and team news
Beşiktaş are without J. Olaitan, V. Černý.
Gençlerbirliği S.K. are without Ousmane Diabate, D. Goutas, Pedro Pereira, A. Dursun.
What the odds and the model say
Bookmaker odds, with their margin removed, start from 84% for Beşiktaş, 11% for the draw and 5% for Gençlerbirliği S.K.. Absences, standings and news change little: the model stays at 85%, 11% and 4%.
Expected goals: Beşiktaş 3.07, Gençlerbirliği S.K. 0.63, 3.70 in total. Over 2.5 at 72%, both teams to score at 45%; the most likely score is 3-0. The expected total is high: the model expects an open game.
Expected corners: 9.4 (over 9.5 at 47%). Expected yellow cards: 3.8, with referee A. Karaoglan (over 3.5 at 51%).
Other factors
Gençlerbirliği S.K. has a new coach, Bernd Storck, in charge for 38 days.
These factors are shown for information: the model will use them only if studies show they improve the predictions.
In short
For the model the most likely outcome is a Beşiktaş win (85%, fair odds 1.18); double chance 1X rises to 96%. These are statistical estimates, not certainties: one match in three or four goes against the favourite.
Missing
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