Twente vs Ajax prediction
Eredivisie · · De Grolsch Veste, Enschede
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Our statistical model, built on the odds of the sharpest bookmakers with their margin removed and adjusted for absences, form and news, gives Twente a 54% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Ajax 24%. The most likely result is 1-1. Expected goals: Twente 2.12, Ajax 1.37.
Match result
Goals
Most likely scores
Match analysis
Standings and form
Twente: position 4 with 23 points from 11 matches (won-drawn-lost 7-2-2), 28 goals scored and 10 conceded. Recent form: W W L D W.
Ajax: position 2 with 24 points from 11 matches (won-drawn-lost 7-3-1), 30 goals scored and 13 conceded. Recent form: W W W D D.
On average Twente take 2.09 points per game, Ajax 2.18.
Absences and team news
Twente are without L. Unnerstall.
Ajax are without J. Brandt, S. Berghuis.
What the odds and the model say
Bookmaker odds, with their margin removed, start from 54% for Twente, 22% for the draw and 24% for Ajax. Absences, standings and news change little: the model stays at 54%, 23% and 24%.
Expected goals: Twente 2.12, Ajax 1.37, 3.50 in total. Over 2.5 at 68%, both teams to score at 67%; the most likely score is 1-1. The expected total is high: the model expects an open game.
Expected corners: 9.9 (over 9.5 at 52%). Expected yellow cards: 3.7, with referee Joey Kooij (over 3.5 at 50%).
Other factors
Rest days since the last match: 3 for Twente, 3 for Ajax.
These factors are shown for information: the model will use them only if studies show they improve the predictions.
In short
For the model the most likely outcome is a Twente win (54%, fair odds 1.86); double chance 1X rises to 76%. These are statistical estimates, not certainties: one match in three or four goes against the favourite.
Missing
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