Cambuur vs PSV Eindhoven prediction
Eredivisie · · Kooi Stadion, Leeuwarden
Live · 76'
Updated:
Our statistical model, built on the odds of the sharpest bookmakers with their margin removed and adjusted for absences, form and news, gives Cambuur a 14% chance of winning, the draw 18% and PSV Eindhoven 68%. The most likely result is 1-2. Expected goals: Cambuur 1.20, PSV Eindhoven 2.70.
Match result
Goals
Most likely scores
Match analysis
Standings and form
Cambuur: position 10 with 15 points from 11 matches (won-drawn-lost 4-3-4), 23 goals scored and 22 conceded. Recent form: W W D W D.
PSV Eindhoven: position 3 with 23 points from 11 matches (won-drawn-lost 7-2-2), 35 goals scored and 13 conceded. Recent form: W D L W L.
On average Cambuur take 1.36 points per game, PSV Eindhoven 2.09.
Absences and team news
Cambuur report no significant absences.
PSV Eindhoven report no significant absences.
What the odds and the model say
Bookmaker odds, with their margin removed, start from 15% for Cambuur, 17% for the draw and 68% for PSV Eindhoven. Absences, standings and news change little: the model stays at 14%, 18% and 68%.
Expected goals: Cambuur 1.20, PSV Eindhoven 2.70, 3.90 in total. Over 2.5 at 75%, both teams to score at 66%; the most likely score is 1-2. The expected total is high: the model expects an open game.
Expected corners: 9.6 (over 9.5 at 49%). Expected yellow cards: 3.8, with referee Sander van der Eijk (over 3.5 at 53%).
Kick-off forecast in Leeuwarden: 8.9 °C, rain 0.3 mm, wind 13 km/h, pitch artificial.
In short
For the model the most likely outcome is a PSV Eindhoven win (68%, fair odds 1.46); double chance X2 rises to 86%. These are statistical estimates, not certainties: one match in three or four goes against the favourite.
Missing
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