Utrecht vs NEC Nijmegen prediction
Eredivisie · · Stadion Galgenwaard, Utrecht
Updated:
Our statistical model, built on the odds of the sharpest bookmakers with their margin removed and adjusted for absences, form and news, gives Utrecht a 35% chance of winning, the draw 25% and NEC Nijmegen 40%. The most likely result is 1-1. Expected goals: Utrecht 1.62, NEC Nijmegen 1.73.
Match result
Goals
Most likely scores
Match analysis
Standings and form
Utrecht: position 11 with 12 points from 11 matches (won-drawn-lost 3-3-5), 19 goals scored and 31 conceded. Recent form: L D W W L.
NEC Nijmegen: position 14 with 11 points from 11 matches (won-drawn-lost 2-5-4), 17 goals scored and 19 conceded. Recent form: L D D D D.
On average Utrecht take 1.09 points per game, NEC Nijmegen 1.00.
Absences and team news
Utrecht report no significant absences.
NEC Nijmegen report no significant absences.
What the odds and the model say
Bookmaker odds, with their margin removed, start from 36% for Utrecht, 24% for the draw and 41% for NEC Nijmegen. Absences, standings and news change little: the model stays at 35%, 25% and 40%.
Expected goals: Utrecht 1.62, NEC Nijmegen 1.73, 3.35 in total. Over 2.5 at 65%, both teams to score at 67%; the most likely score is 1-1. The expected total is high: the model expects an open game.
Expected corners: 9.1 (over 9.5 at 42%). Expected yellow cards: 3.5, with referee Erwin Blank (over 3.5 at 47%).
Kick-off forecast in Utrecht: 8 °C, no rain, wind 9 km/h, pitch dry.
In short
For the model the most likely outcome is a NEC Nijmegen win (40%, fair odds 2.50); double chance X2 rises to 65%. These are statistical estimates, not certainties: one match in three or four goes against the favourite.
Missing
Free daily picks on our Telegram channel
Join on Telegram