AZ Alkmaar vs Groningen prediction
Eredivisie · · AFAS Stadion（Alkmaar）, Alkmaar
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Our statistical model, built on the odds of the sharpest bookmakers with their margin removed and adjusted for absences, form and news, gives AZ Alkmaar a 65% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Groningen 15%. The most likely result is 2-1. Expected goals: AZ Alkmaar 2.35, Groningen 1.08.
Match result
Goals
Most likely scores
Match analysis
Standings and form
AZ Alkmaar: position 5 with 20 points from 11 matches (won-drawn-lost 6-2-3), 20 goals scored and 13 conceded. Recent form: L L D L W.
Groningen: position 9 with 15 points from 11 matches (won-drawn-lost 4-3-4), 26 goals scored and 24 conceded. Recent form: L D L W W.
On average AZ Alkmaar take 1.82 points per game, Groningen 1.36.
Absences and team news
AZ Alkmaar report no significant absences.
Groningen report no significant absences.
Team news, AZ Alkmaar: AZ plays on short rest, about 68 hours after Thursday's defeat.
Team news, Groningen: Groningen are without striker Ryan Metu and midfielder Travis Hernes, who had surgery this week; doubts over Van der Werff and Nordin.
What the odds and the model say
Bookmaker odds, with their margin removed, start from 65% for AZ Alkmaar, 20% for the draw and 16% for Groningen. Absences, standings and news change little: the model stays at 65%, 20% and 15%.
Expected goals: AZ Alkmaar 2.35, Groningen 1.08, 3.43 in total. Over 2.5 at 67%, both teams to score at 60%; the most likely score is 2-1. The expected total is high: the model expects an open game.
Expected corners: 9.7 (over 9.5 at 49%). Expected yellow cards: 3.9, with referee Jannick van der Laan (over 3.5 at 54%).
Kick-off forecast in Alkmaar: 10 °C, no rain, wind 14 km/h, pitch dry.
In short
For the model the most likely outcome is a AZ Alkmaar win (65%, fair odds 1.54); double chance 1X rises to 85%. These are statistical estimates, not certainties: one match in three or four goes against the favourite.
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