FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayern München prediction
Bundesliga · · MEWA Arena, Mainz
Full time
Updated:
Our statistical model, built on the odds of the sharpest bookmakers with their margin removed and adjusted for absences, form and news, gives FSV Mainz 05 a 8% chance of winning, the draw 13% and Bayern München 80%. The most likely result is 0-3. Expected goals: FSV Mainz 05 0.96, Bayern München 3.15.
Match result
Goals
Most likely scores
Match analysis
Standings and form
FSV Mainz 05: position 11 with 10 points from 9 matches (won-drawn-lost 3-1-5), 18 goals scored and 19 conceded. Recent form: L L L W L.
Bayern München: position 1 with 21 points from 9 matches (won-drawn-lost 6-3-0), 29 goals scored and 9 conceded. Recent form: W D W W D.
On average FSV Mainz 05 take 1.25 points per game, Bayern München 2.25.
Absences and team news
FSV Mainz 05 are without P. Mwene, P. Tietz, S. Posch, A. Schwolow.
Bayern München are without A. Davies, L. Díaz.
What the odds and the model say
Bookmaker odds, with their margin removed, start from 9% for FSV Mainz 05, 13% for the draw and 78% for Bayern München. Accounting for absences, standings and news, the model moves them to 8%, 13% and 80%. The model's adjustments never move an outcome by more than 5 points.
Expected goals: FSV Mainz 05 0.96, Bayern München 3.15, 4.11 in total. Over 2.5 at 78%, both teams to score at 60%; the most likely score is 0-3. The expected total is high: the model expects an open game.
Kick-off forecast in Mainz: 6 °C, no rain, wind 3 km/h, pitch dry.
In short
For the model the most likely outcome is a Bayern München win (80%, fair odds 1.26); double chance X2 rises to 92%. These are statistical estimates, not certainties: one match in three or four goes against the favourite.
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