VfB Stuttgart vs Werder Bremen prediction
Bundesliga · · MHP Arena, Stuttgart
Full time
Updated:
Our statistical model, built on the odds of the sharpest bookmakers with their margin removed and adjusted for absences, form and news, gives VfB Stuttgart a 51% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Werder Bremen 27%. The most likely result is 1-1. Expected goals: VfB Stuttgart 2.15, Werder Bremen 1.56.
Match result
Goals
Most likely scores
Match analysis
Standings and form
VfB Stuttgart: position 8 with 12 points from 9 matches (won-drawn-lost 4-0-5), 15 goals scored and 15 conceded. Recent form: W W L L W.
Werder Bremen: position 5 with 15 points from 9 matches (won-drawn-lost 4-3-2), 17 goals scored and 15 conceded. Recent form: L W W D D.
On average VfB Stuttgart take 1.13 points per game, Werder Bremen 1.88.
Absences and team news
VfB Stuttgart are without A. Stiller, Finn Jeltsch, F. Bredlow, E. Demirović.
Werder Bremen are without Chuky San José.
Team news, VfB Stuttgart: Atakan Karazor is doubtful for the match against Werder with a muscle problem and is unlikely to start.
What the odds and the model say
Bookmaker odds, with their margin removed, start from 53% for VfB Stuttgart, 23% for the draw and 24% for Werder Bremen. Accounting for absences, standings and news, the model moves them to 51%, 22% and 27%. The model's adjustments never move an outcome by more than 5 points.
Expected goals: VfB Stuttgart 2.15, Werder Bremen 1.56, 3.71 in total. Over 2.5 at 72%, both teams to score at 71%; the most likely score is 1-1. The expected total is high: the model expects an open game.
Kick-off forecast in Stuttgart: 7.7 °C, no rain, wind 2 km/h, pitch dry.
In short
For the model the most likely outcome is a VfB Stuttgart win (51%, fair odds 1.98); double chance 1X rises to 73%. These are statistical estimates, not certainties: one match in three or four goes against the favourite.
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