Borussia Dortmund vs SV Elversberg prediction
Bundesliga · · Signal Iduna Park, Dortmund
Full time
Updated:
Our statistical model, built on the odds of the sharpest bookmakers with their margin removed and adjusted for absences, form and news, gives Borussia Dortmund a 74% chance of winning, the draw 16% and SV Elversberg 10%. The most likely result is 2-0. Expected goals: Borussia Dortmund 2.79, SV Elversberg 0.98.
Match result
Goals
Most likely scores
Match analysis
Standings and form
Borussia Dortmund: position 2 with 21 points from 9 matches (won-drawn-lost 6-3-0), 16 goals scored and 7 conceded. Recent form: W D W D D.
SV Elversberg: position 7 with 13 points from 9 matches (won-drawn-lost 4-1-4), 17 goals scored and 18 conceded. Recent form: L W L W L.
On average Borussia Dortmund take 2.25 points per game, SV Elversberg 1.63.
Absences and team news
Borussia Dortmund are without S. Guirassy, J. Ryerson, M. Beier.
SV Elversberg are without J. Gyamerah, William Cole Campbell.
What the odds and the model say
Bookmaker odds, with their margin removed, start from 74% for Borussia Dortmund, 16% for the draw and 10% for SV Elversberg. Absences, standings and news change little: the model stays at 74%, 16% and 10%.
Expected goals: Borussia Dortmund 2.79, SV Elversberg 0.98, 3.77 in total. Over 2.5 at 73%, both teams to score at 59%; the most likely score is 2-0. The expected total is high: the model expects an open game.
Kick-off forecast in Dortmund: 9.5 °C, no rain, wind 3 km/h, pitch dry.
In short
For the model the most likely outcome is a Borussia Dortmund win (74%, fair odds 1.35); double chance 1X rises to 90%. These are statistical estimates, not certainties: one match in three or four goes against the favourite.
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