RB Leipzig vs FC Augsburg prediction
Bundesliga · · Leipzig Red Bull Arena, Leipzig
Full time
Updated:
Our statistical model, built on the odds of the sharpest bookmakers with their margin removed and adjusted for absences, form and news, gives RB Leipzig a 70% chance of winning, the draw 16% and FC Augsburg 13%. The most likely result is 2-1. Expected goals: RB Leipzig 2.89, FC Augsburg 1.25.
Match result
Goals
Most likely scores
Match analysis
Standings and form
RB Leipzig: position 3 with 18 points from 9 matches (won-drawn-lost 6-0-3), 27 goals scored and 13 conceded. Recent form: W W W L W.
FC Augsburg: position 13 with 9 points from 9 matches (won-drawn-lost 2-3-4), 20 goals scored and 20 conceded. Recent form: L L D L D.
On average RB Leipzig take 1.88 points per game, FC Augsburg 1.13.
Absences and team news
RB Leipzig are without A. Nusa.
FC Augsburg are without M. Gregoritsch, C. Brackelmann, M. Wolf, Noahkai Kai Daniel Banks.
What the odds and the model say
Bookmaker odds, with their margin removed, start from 69% for RB Leipzig, 17% for the draw and 14% for FC Augsburg. Accounting for absences, standings and news, the model moves them to 70%, 16% and 13%. The model's adjustments never move an outcome by more than 5 points.
Expected goals: RB Leipzig 2.89, FC Augsburg 1.25, 4.14 in total. Over 2.5 at 78%, both teams to score at 68%; the most likely score is 2-1. The expected total is high: the model expects an open game.
In short
For the model the most likely outcome is a RB Leipzig win (70%, fair odds 1.42); double chance 1X rises to 87%. These are statistical estimates, not certainties: one match in three or four goes against the favourite.
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