IFK Goteborg vs Malmo FF prediction
Allsvenskan · · Gamla Ullevi, Gothenburg
Full time
Updated:
Our statistical model, built on the odds of the sharpest bookmakers with their margin removed and adjusted for absences, form and news, gives IFK Goteborg a 36% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Malmo FF 37%. The most likely result is 1-1. Expected goals: IFK Goteborg 1.41, Malmo FF 1.44.
Match result
Goals
Most likely scores
Match analysis
Standings and form
IFK Goteborg: position 10 with 38 points from 27 matches (won-drawn-lost 10-8-9), 36 goals scored and 46 conceded. Recent form: L D D D W.
Malmo FF: position 8 with 40 points from 27 matches (won-drawn-lost 12-4-11), 42 goals scored and 36 conceded. Recent form: L W D L W.
On average IFK Goteborg take 1.41 points per game, Malmo FF 1.48.
Absences and team news
IFK Goteborg are without A. Erlingmark, A. Wiberg, R. Yeboah, E. Bishesari.
Malmo FF are without A. Đurić, E. Botheim, K. Busuladžić.
What the odds and the model say
Bookmaker odds, with their margin removed, start from 36% for IFK Goteborg, 27% for the draw and 37% for Malmo FF. Absences, standings and news change little: the model stays at 36%, 27% and 37%.
Expected goals: IFK Goteborg 1.41, Malmo FF 1.44, 2.85 in total. Over 2.5 at 54%, both teams to score at 59%; the most likely score is 1-1.
Expected corners: 9.4 (over 9.5 at 46%). Expected yellow cards: 3.7, with referee Adi Aganovic (over 3.5 at 51%).
Kick-off forecast in Göteborg: 6.6 °C, no rain, wind 10 km/h, pitch dry.
Other factors
Malmo FF has a new coach, G. Helstrup, in charge for 38 days.
These factors are shown for information: the model will use them only if studies show they improve the predictions.
In short
For the model the most likely outcome is a Malmo FF win (37%, fair odds 2.71); double chance X2 rises to 64%. These are statistical estimates, not certainties: one match in three or four goes against the favourite.
Missing
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