IF Brommapojkarna vs Mjallby AIF prediction
Allsvenskan · · Grimsta IP, Stockholm
Full time
Updated:
Our statistical model, built on the odds of the sharpest bookmakers with their margin removed and adjusted for absences, form and news, gives IF Brommapojkarna a 46% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Mjallby AIF 27%. The most likely result is 1-1. Expected goals: IF Brommapojkarna 1.62, Mjallby AIF 1.20.
Match result
Goals
Most likely scores
Match analysis
Standings and form
IF Brommapojkarna: position 11 with 34 points from 27 matches (won-drawn-lost 9-7-11), 39 goals scored and 44 conceded. Recent form: L D W L W.
Mjallby AIF: position 12 with 27 points from 27 matches (won-drawn-lost 6-9-12), 30 goals scored and 43 conceded. Recent form: D W L L D.
On average IF Brommapojkarna take 1.26 points per game, Mjallby AIF 1.00.
Absences and team news
IF Brommapojkarna are without K. Barslund, L. Björklund.
Mjallby AIF are without J. Bergström, T. Miettinen, R. Wallinder, J. Kjær.
What the odds and the model say
Bookmaker odds, with their margin removed, start from 45% for IF Brommapojkarna, 26% for the draw and 29% for Mjallby AIF. Accounting for absences, standings and news, the model moves them to 46%, 27% and 27%. The model's adjustments never move an outcome by more than 5 points.
Expected goals: IF Brommapojkarna 1.62, Mjallby AIF 1.20, 2.82 in total. Over 2.5 at 54%, both teams to score at 57%; the most likely score is 1-1.
Expected corners: 9.5 (over 9.5 at 47%). Expected yellow cards: 3.6, with referee Glenn Nyberg (over 3.5 at 47%).
In short
For the model the most likely outcome is a IF Brommapojkarna win (46%, fair odds 2.18); double chance 1X rises to 73%. These are statistical estimates, not certainties: one match in three or four goes against the favourite.
Missing
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